Tariff Volatility Playbook for Flippers: Protect Margin, Hit Timelines, Close Confidently
Tariff swings on steel, aluminum, and finish goods can nuke a rehab budget mid-project. For fix-and-flip operators, the winners aren’t the ones who guess prices perfectly—they’re the ones who lock, hedge, and sequence the project so surprises don’t crater margin or timelines. Here’s a field-tested playbook—and how we structure funding at LoanFunders.com to back it up.
Price volatility is a scope problem, not just a cost problem. Design scopes that tolerate swaps.
Lock what matters, float what doesn’t. Use written price-hold windows and substitution trees.
Finance to the schedule, not the spreadsheet. Align draws and reserves to real lead times.
Model sensitivities before you sign. +10–15% materials, +4–8 weeks lead time.
Windows/doors & exterior metals: aluminum frames, railings, roofing, gutters.
HVAC & electrical: coils, wiring, panels.
Kitchens/baths finishes: appliances, hardware, fixtures (import exposure).
Steel-related carpentry: fasteners, connectors, metal studs on heavier rehabs.
Dual Quotes + Hold Letters
Get two vendor quotes for metal-heavy items with written price-hold windows (e.g., 30–60 days) and delivery dates. Attach these to your GC agreement and budget packet.
Substitution Tree (A/B SKUs)
Pre-approve swap paths that keep your ARV intact:
Aluminum → alternative profiles or thermally-broken options
Tube steel handrails → wood/glass variants where code allows
Appliance set A → Set B with similar buyer appeal/price point
Keep cut sheets in your file so appraisers and buyers understand quality is comparable.
Escalation Clause + Indexed Allowances
Use an escalation clause for specified materials tied to public indexes (steel/aluminum). Cap the upside (e.g., “Owner pays increase above 8%”) and define proof (supplier letters).
Early Buys on Long-Lead Items
Place deposits earlier to secure fabrication slots (windows/doors, custom metals) while sequencing demo/rough-in to avoid idle crews.
Right-Size Contingency
Light rehab: 7–10%
Heavy rehab/structural: 10–15%
Higher if your lead times or inspections are historically slow.
Flooring: pick a LVP/LVT line with multiple in-family colors so stockouts don’t force full re-selections.
Tile: standardize formats (e.g., 12×24) across bathrooms; keep trim choices interchangeable.
Kitchens: cabinet lines with quick-ship doors; stone with at least two alternate slabs approved.
Exterior: if metal costs surge, have a vinyl/fiber-cement alternative pre-approved by HOA/city.
Allowances: “Cabinets $12,500; Tile $4,200; Windows/Doors $18,000—subject to substitution within approved catalog if primary SKU unavailable.”
Escalation: “Material escalation for steel/aluminum-coded items beyond 8% vs. quote date borne by Owner, evidenced by supplier letter; decreases beyond 5% credit back to Owner.”
Schedule: “GC to provide lead-time letters and update Gantt weekly; draw requests follow deposit/fab/delivery/install milestones.”
1% materials overrun = ~1% margin hit if ARV is fixed. Bake a +10–15% materials sensitivity in your model and confirm you still clear your target profit.
Lead time slip: Every 2 weeks of delay at $3,000/mo carry ≈ $1,500 profit erosion—double if staging/crew remobilization is required.
Milestone-based draws: Deposit → Fabrication → Delivery → Install.
Interest reserve (when useful): Cover carry during known gap periods (special order windows/doors) to avoid forced sales.
Vendor-backed invoices: Attach quotes/hold letters to each draw to keep everyone aligned (you, GC, lender).
Before photos + scope + after comps with adjustments (quality, bed/bath count, GLA).
Cut sheets for any substitutions; emphasize equal or superior quality.
Permit & inspection receipts to support the legitimacy of structural/MEP work (buyers and appraisers care).
“Hero” brand substitutions that downgrade the buyer experience to save pennies.
One vendor with no hold letter on a six-figure window package.
Over-reliance on temporary rate buydowns to “fix” profit—buydowns don’t lift value; they only change payments.
Fix & Flip
Min FICO 660 (700+ recommended)
LTC: up to 90% for 3+ flips; up to 82.5% for 1–2 flips with 700+ FICO; max 60% for 660–699 / Foreign Nationals
Rates from 8.5% | $100K–$3M (to $4.5M case-by-case)
Draws aligned to deposit/fab/delivery/install; interest reserves available for long-lead exposure
New-Investor (Light Rehab) Track
680+ FICO (700+ recommended)
Case-by-case leverage and pricing based on scope quality, comps, and experience proxies
DSCR Take-Out (if you decide to hold)
We’ll model payment options (standard vs. permanent buydown, I/O) and confirm what actually improves DSCR and proceeds.
Two quotes + hold letters for metal-heavy items
Substitution tree with pre-approved SKUs/cut sheets
Escalation clause + indexed allowances
Contingency set (7–15%) matched to scope risk
Gantt with lead-time letters; milestone-based draw calendar
Appraisal packet: before photos, scope, comps, permits
Send us address, purchase status, scope/budget (with vendor quotes), timeline/Gantt, comps, and experience. We’ll return a soft quote with LTC, a draw & reserve map tailored to your lead times, and options to protect your margin if tariffs stay jumpy.
Start your soft quote at LoanFunders.com or reply to this email—let’s keep your flip on budget and on schedule.
Disclaimer: Program terms, guidelines, and pricing are subject to change without notice and may vary by scenario. This is not a commitment to lend. All loans subject to underwriting and applicable regulations.